- Background and Context
Somalia has experienced prolonged political instability and violent conflict since the collapse of the central government in 1991. The breakdown of state institutions resulted in the fragmentation of political authority, the emergence of armed factions, and the proliferation of clan-based militias competing for territorial control, economic resources, and political influence. Over the past three decades, Somalia’s conflict landscape has evolved into a complex system characterized by overlapping dynamics including clan competition, violent extremist insurgency, contested governance arrangements, and disputes over natural resources.
Following the establishment of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012, significant efforts have been made to rebuild state institutions and advance the federalization process through the creation of Federal Member States (FMS). The federal governance framework aims to decentralize authority, promote inclusive political representation, and strengthen governance structures at regional and district levels. However, the federalization process has also introduced new political dynamics, including tensions between federal and state authorities, disputes over power-sharing arrangements, and debates concerning the distribution of political authority and resources among different regions and communities. At the same time, Somalia’s conflict dynamics continue to be influenced by entrenched clan identities, competition over land and natural resources, weak institutional capacity, economic marginalization, and the persistent threat posed by the armed extremist group Al-Shabaab, particularly in rural areas where state presence remains limited.
Hirshabelle State was formally established in 2016 as part of Somalia’s federalization process through the merger of the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions. While the formation of Hirshabelle represented an important step toward strengthening regional governance, it also generated political contestation among local stakeholders regarding issues of representation, power-sharing, and the distribution of administrative authority between the two regions. As a result, the governance landscape in Hirshabelle continues to be characterized by evolving institutional arrangements, limited administrative capacity, and ongoing negotiations among political actors, clan leaders, and community representatives. District administrations often face significant challenges in delivering public services, maintaining security, and effectively managing disputes due to resource constraints and institutional limitations.
Within this context, the Hiran Region occupies a strategically significant position in Hirshabelle State. The regional capital, Beledweyne, serves as an important economic and transportation hub linking central Somalia with cross-border trade routes connecting Ethiopia and other parts of the country. The region also benefits from the presence of the Shabelle River, which supports agricultural production and agro-pastoral livelihoods. Despite these advantages, Hiran faces substantial development challenges, including limited infrastructure, high unemployment, and chronic livelihood insecurity among communities. Environmental pressures such as recurrent flooding along the Shabelle River and periodic droughts further exacerbate these challenges by disrupting agricultural production, displacing rural populations, and intensifying competition over grazing land and water resources.
Hiran has also experienced persistent insecurity linked to both localized inter-clan conflicts and the broader insurgency involving Al-Shabaab. The region has historically served as an important operational corridor for the group due to its strategic location and mobility routes. In recent years, however, community-led resistance movements have emerged in response to the group’s presence. Local militia mobilizations commonly referred to as Ma’awisley have supported government-led counter-insurgency operations and contributed to altering the security landscape in several districts. While these efforts have weakened insurgent control in certain areas, they have also introduced new governance and security challenges related to militia coordination, command structures, and the management of local security arrangements.
At the same time, unresolved clan disputes, political rivalries, and competition over administrative authority continue to generate localized tensions within the region. Environmental shocks such as drought and flooding further interact with these social and political dynamics, intensifying competition over scarce resources and increasing the potential for conflict. The interaction between insurgency dynamics, community mobilization, governance challenges, and resource competition creates a complex and evolving conflict environment in Hiran Region. Given these interlinked political, social, security, and environmental dynamics, there is a need for a comprehensive conflict mapping and context analysis to better understand the drivers, actors, and patterns of conflict in the region.
This analysis will be carried out under the CARE led Puntland and Galmudug Peace Initiative project. Whilst the project is not operational in Hirshabelle state, the region has been chosen as a climate-conflict hotspot with a view to providing an evidence-based foundation to inform future conflict-sensitive programming, strengthen peacebuilding efforts, and support governance and development initiatives aimed at promoting stability and resilience in Hiran Region and across Hirshabelle State.
- Rationale for Conducting the Conflict Mapping
Given the multidimensional nature of conflict dynamics in Hiran Region, there is a need for a comprehensive and systematic analysis that examines these dynamics in an integrated and evidence-based manner. Understanding the underlying drivers of conflict, the relationships between key actors, and the structural conditions that contribute to instability is essential for designing effective peacebuilding and development interventions. Conflict mapping and context analysis provide critical analytical tools for identifying patterns of conflict, assessing risks, and informing conflict-sensitive programming. Such analysis can help stakeholders better understand the interactions between governance, security, social dynamics, and environmental pressures that shape conflict trajectories.
To support this objective, CARE International Somalia seeks to engage a qualified external consultancy firm to undertake a comprehensive Conflict Mapping and Context Analysis in Hiran Region, Hirshabelle State Somalia.
- Purpose of the Consultancy
The purpose of this consultancy is to undertake a comprehensive conflict mapping and context analysis of Hiran Region to generate a detailed understanding of the political, social, economic, and environmental dynamics shaping conflict in the region.
The consultancy will identify the key drivers of conflict, map relevant actors and relationships, assess current and emerging risks, and analyse the institutional and social mechanisms that influence conflict prevention and resolution. The findings will provide an analytical foundation for designing conflict-sensitive interventions and strengthening peacebuilding, governance, and development programming in Hirshabelle State.
- Objectives of the Consultancy
- Overall Objective
The overall objective of the consultancy is to conduct a comprehensive conflict mapping and context analysis in Hiran Region that identifies key conflict drivers, actors, relationships, and emerging risks to inform evidence-based peacebuilding, governance, and development interventions.
- Specific Objectives
The specific objectives of the consultancy include:
- Conducting a brief overview of the historical evolution of conflict dynamics in Hiran Region.
- Identifying and analysing structural and proximate drivers of conflict affecting communities in the region.
- Identify consequences and impacts of conflict – on social, economic and political structures and relationships, with an explicit gender and age lens.
- Mapping key conflict actors, their interests, influence, and relationships. This should be at both general and context specific level, focusing on drivers and push factors, including tipping points and displacement as well as connectors and dividers.
- State/formal and traditional/informal governance systems, conflict prevention and dispute resolution mechanisms – including examining their strengths and weaknesses
- Analysing the impact of environmental pressures and climate variability on resource competition.
- Examining gender and youth dimensions of conflict and peacebuilding – including barriers and opportunities for their participation in relevant decision-making spaces.
- Assessing potential future conflict scenarios and associated risks for different groups, including marginalised groups, women/girls.
- Providing practical recommendations to strengthen conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts. The recommendations are expected to cover political processes (including power sharing), security and justice issues, as well as economic and environmental dimensions of peace at both district and regional levels.
- Scope of Work
The consultancy firm will undertake a comprehensive conflict mapping and context analysis of the Hiran Region, examining the multidimensional factors that shape conflict dynamics and social relations across the region. The scope of work will encompass an in-depth assessment of political, social, security, economic, and environmental dimensions that influence patterns of instability, cooperation, and peacebuilding opportunities. The analysis will explore how formal governance institutions at federal, state, and district levels interact with informal systems of authority, including clan structures, customary institutions, and religious leadership, in shaping local decision-making and conflict management processes. Attention will be given to understanding the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict, including disputes over land and natural resources, political representation, access to services, and control over economic opportunities.
The consultancy is also expected to examine the evolving security landscape, including the presence and activities of armed actors, community defence groups, and security forces, and assess how these actors affect local governance and civilian protection. In addition, the study will analyse socioeconomic pressures such as unemployment, livelihood insecurity, and market access, as well as environmental stressors including recurrent droughts, flooding along the Shabelle River, and competition over grazing and agricultural land. Through this multidimensional assessment, the consultancy will generate a detailed conflict map that identifies key actors, relationships, drivers of conflict, and potential entry points for conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and conflict-sensitive development interventions in Hiran Region.
ATTACHMENTS
Terms of reference for Conflict Mapping and Context Analysis
