Terms of Reference for consultancy Services of
Conflict Mapping and Context Analysis for Luuq District, Gedo region, Jubaland State of Somalia.
Reference #PR 012/ADRO/2026 6/05/2026
Access Development and Relief Organization (ADRO) is a women-led humanitarian and development cooperation organization dedicated to peacebuilding, governance and conciliation integrated with life-saving emergency interventions and sustainable development solutions across Somalia. ADRO hereby invites qualified, eligible and experienced Consultancy firms to submit Request for Proposal (RFP) to undertake a systematic conflict mapping and context analysis in Luuq distict, Gedo region, Jubaland State of Somalia.
- Background and Context
Somalia has faced decades of fragmentation, political instability and violent conflicts with clan-based militias competing for territorial control, economic resources, and political influence since the collapse of the central government in 1991. While the 2012 federalization efforts like the establishment of Jubaland State have aimed to decentralize authority, promote inclusive political representation, and strengthen governance structures at regional and district levels, they have also introduced new political dynamics including disputes over power-sharing arrangements and debates over the distribution of political authority and resources among different communities.
Within this landscape, Luuq District, located within the Gedo region of Jubaland state which serves as a critical focal point for both economic activity and communal interaction has not been an exception. As home to a diverse array of Somali clans, the district has recently been characterized by a wave of political contestation and inter-clan conflicts with local communities fighting over issues of political representation/power-sharing, the equitable distribution of local administrative authority, land management, water and grazing rights, and resource (aid) management. To understand the gravity of the current situation, one must look at Luuq’s strategic significance. The district is a vital economic corridor within Gedo and the broader Jubaland State, primarily due to its proximity to the Juba River. This geographic advantage supports a robust agricultural sector and sustains the agro-pastoral livelihoods that form the backbone of the local economy.
However, the stability and security of the district deteriorated sharply in July 2024, when violent conflicts emerged between two neighboring clans. The conflict was precipitated by the long-standing grievances regarding historical injustices, land ownership, perceived unequal distribution of resources, and a struggle for the primary control of the Luuq local administration. The violence has tragically resulted in the deaths of over 30 individuals and mass displacement of at least 14,740 households (88,452 people) from their homes. The displaced families have migrated to sites/villages just outside Luuq town towards Dogob, Dhuycaley, Shadiley, Kulmiye, Yurkud and Ceelbon, while others have sought refuge within Luuq town and Xero Kowad area, along Dolow road. Despite numerous mediation attempts facilitated by traditional clan elders and the Jubaland government, the security environment remains precarious. To date, no formal or fruitful peace framework agreement has been reached. The ongoing conflict has led to the widespread destruction of private homes, retail shops, and local markets, while simultaneously obstructing the delivery of essential humanitarian aid thus contributing to widespread humanitarian needs and gaps.
This crisis is further exacerbated by environmental shocks. Recurrent cycles of drought and flooding have created a “threat multiplier” effect, interacting with existing social and political tensions. These climate-driven disasters intensify the competition over increasingly scarce resources, thereby heightening the potential for further conflict and deepening the humanitarian needs of the population.
Given these interlinked political, social, economic, security, and environmental dynamics, there is a need for a comprehensive conflict mapping and context analysis to better understand the drivers, actors, and patterns of conflict in the district.
- Rationale for the Conflict Mapping and Context Analysis
The conflict in Luuq district is non-linear and is deeply embedded in the local political economy. Given this multidimensional nature of conflict, there is a need for a comprehensive and systematic analysis that examines these dynamics in an integrated and evidence-based manner. Understanding the underlying drivers of conflict, the relationships between key actors, and the structural conditions that contribute to instability is essential before ADRO embarks on its SSF III Conciliation Initiative to ensure “Do No Harm” approach.
To this end, Access Development and Relief Organization (ADRO) through the SSF funded SF III Conciliation Initiative project, seeks to engage a qualified external consultancy firm to undertake a comprehensive Conflict Mapping and Context Analysis in Luuq district, Gedo region, Jubaland State of Somalia.
- Purpose and Objectives of the Study
3.1 Overall Objective
The purpose of the study is to undertake a systematic conflict mapping and context analysis in Luuq, in particular, and the greater Gedo region, in general, to generate a detailed understanding of the political, social, economic, and environmental dynamics shaping the conflict in the region. The study will identify the key drivers of conflict (social, political, economic and environmental), map relevant actors and relationships, assess current and emerging risks, and analyze the institutional and social mechanisms that influence conflict prevention and resolution. The findings will inform the design and implementation of ADRO’s conciliation and peacebuilding programmes implemented in Luuq district and the greater Gedo region of Jubaland State of Somalia
3.2 Specific Objectives
The specific objectives of the study include:
- Historical Analysis: Conduct a brief overview of the historical evolution of conflict dynamics in Luuq district and also give specific attention to the numerous peace-building and conflict mediation initiatives facilitated by the Jubaland government through the office of the Vice President and traditional clan elders since 2024 to present.
- Conflict Drivers Identification: Identify and analyze the structural and underlying drivers of the conflict in Luuq district and Gedo region in general such as land disputes, water and grazing rights, political/administrative representation disputes, resource (aid) management disputes, historical injustices/grievances among others.
- Actor Mapping: Map key conflict actors, their interests, influence, and relationships. This should be at context-specific level, focusing on drivers and push factors.
- Impact Assessment: Evaluate the consequences and impact of the conflict on social, economic and political relationships with specific focus on gender and age (women, girls, boys, youth and minorities).
- State the formal and traditional/informal governance systems, conflict prevention and dispute resolution mechanisms – including examining their strengths and weaknesses.
- Analyze the impact of environmental pressures and climate variability on resource competition.
- Examine gender and youth dimensions of conflict and peacebuilding – including barriers and opportunities for their participation in relevant decision-making spaces.
- Providing practical recommendations to strengthen conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts. The recommendations are expected to cover political processes (power sharing), land dispute management, security and justice issues, as well as economic and resource management at district levels.
- Scope of Work
The study will be conducted in the Luuq district- and its surrounding settlements. The scope will encompass an in-depth assessment of political, social, security, economic, and environmental dimensions that influence conflict dynamics and social relations across Luuq district. The analysis will explore how formal governance institutions at district levels interact with informal systems of authority, including clan structures, customary institutions, and religious leadership. Attention will be given to understanding the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict, including disputes over land and natural resources, political representation, access to services, and control over economic opportunities.
Through this multi-dimensional assessment, the study will generate a detailed conflict map that identifies key actors, relationships, drivers of conflict, and potential entry points for conflict prevention and peacebuilding in the district. As part of this, the consultant will examine the following dimensions within Luuq District and the greater Gedo region
